Voters unhappy with performance of main parties in NI Assembly according to opinion poll by Institute of Irish Studies, Liverpool University

Project undertaken by Professors Jon Tonge and Pete Shirlow, plus Dr Sean Haughey at the University of Liverpool and involving academics at
Queen’s University Belfast (Professor Katy Hayward), University of Leeds (Professor Jocelyn Evans) and the LSE (Dr Paul Mitchell)

KEY FINDINGS

On Stormont and power sharing

1.    Only 27.4% of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the Executive (ministers) compared to 44.8% who disagreed/strongly disagreed. Dissatisfaction is greatest among those who identify as neither unionist/loyalist nor nationalist/republican.

2.    Only 31% of Catholics, 28.4% of Protestants and 14.4% of those who have no religion were satisfied by the performance of the Executive.

3.    A majority (54.5%) of respondents strongly disagreed/disagreed that they were ‘… confident that the Assembly will not collapse again‘. A mere 19.3% stated confidence in its stability.

4.    Near equal shares of unionists and nationalists, just over 20%, were confident that the Assembly would not be suspended again. Among those who did not identify as unionist or nationalist, only 13.8% concurred.

5.    On a more positive note, most respondents believe power-sharing to be the best basis for governance. The early period, post 1998, recorded much higher shares of unionists who were opposed to power-sharing. As time has moved on unionists have become more supportive of power-sharing.

6.    When examined by political party (except for the TUV) at least 66% agreed that ‘the power-sharing system remains the best basis for governing Northern Ireland but believe that the requires system ‘to work better’.

7. Regarding the proposition that ‘power sharing has never been a good basis for governing Northern Ireland and should be replaced’ 28.8% of TUV voters agreed, some three times higher than the percentage share in any other political party.

8.   With regards to what should happen ‘if the First or deputy First Minister resigns’, the proposition that the post should transfer to the next largest party from the same bloc received strongest support among DUP (51.4%) and UUP (54.3%) voters.

On the Border

9. On the long term constitutional future of Northern Ireland, 48.6% want it to remain within the UK, while 33.7% would prefer Irish unity.

10.  Among those stating an opinion, 58.2% support NI remaining within the UK compared to 40.4% who want Irish unity. When examining voters only, 57.1% are in favour of the Union versus 42.2% against. Among non-voters slightly more (58.3% v 38.7%) favour a long-term policy in which NI remains in the UK

On the EU

11. Most respondents (63.1%) agree that the UK should seek a closer relationship with the EU if it reduces trade barriers between GB and NI, and between the UK and the EU. The plurality of all voters by political party agreed that ‘the UK should seek a closer relationship’. 23.4% of DUP and 30.8% of TUV voters disagreed. SDLP and Alliance voters were those with the highest level of agreement. 49.8% versus 21.4% of unionists, 75.7% versus 8.2% of nationalists and 69.2% versus 11.6% of ‘neithers’.

12.  Most respondents (61.3%) would vote to re-join the EU if given the opportunity. Just over half of those of no religion (54%) and 82.4% of Catholics stated that they would vote to return, whilst 43.7% of Protestants would do likewise, versus 39.3% who would not.

On Immigration

13.   Respondents were nearly 3 times as likely to disagree (56.6% compared to 21.1%) that ‘immigration to NI has been good for the economy and society’. Over 60% aged 66+ do not believe that immigration has benefited the economy and society. Overall, just over one-in-five respondents believe that immigration has been positive for NI. The % share in disagreement is 11% higher than recorded after the 2019 election.

10.   Those who have no religion are more likely to see immigration as beneficial, compared to 20% of Catholics and Protestants. 18% of unionists, 20% of nationalists and just over 30% of neither, who agree that immigration has benefitted our economy and society.

On better community relations

11.   A post-1998 feature has been the growth in friendships across the identity divide. 88.9% agreed or strongly agreed that they had such friendships. At least 83% of all age groups have friendships that stretch across identity divides. Just over 90% of the post Good Friday Agreement generation have such friendships.

On Legacy and Troubles Prosecutions

12.   Regarding Legacy issues: 31.8% agreed and 47.9% disagreed that it is time to end prosecutions for actions during the Troubles. Those aged 18-25 (40%) are most likely to strongly agree/agree that it is time to end prosecutions. This compares to 30% among those aged 45-64 and 33% of those aged 66+. More Catholics (56.1%) compared to Protestants (45.8%) and the non-religious (36%) strongly disagree/disagree that it would be right to end prosecutions related to the Troubles.